by Dave McGill

About the same time that India conducted a test demonstrating it now has the ability to deliver a nuclear bomb to any target in the Middle East – or China – Iran provided more evidence that it intends to continue attempting to join the nine nations that comprise the so-called nuclear club.

Earlier this month, Iran celebrated its annual Space Day by firing a powerful rocket into space and announcing that it is close to a “point of no return” in its space program. The success of the large, four-engine, satellite-carrying rocket caused concern among the Western powers based on their realization that Iran’s ballistic missile program is proceding faster than expected.

About the same time, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates announced that he was disappointed in Tehran’s response to a proposal made months ago by the Obama sdministration involving an exchange of low-enriched uranium for fuel plates designed for use in a medical reactor.

The day after the Gates announcement, Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad directed his atomic energy agency to boost its enrichment capabilities to the 20% level, ostensibly for medical purposes. However, this level of purity also represents the threshold for developing nuclear weapons.

Two days later, increased calls for sanctions echoed throughout the West as Iran revealed it had told the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it intends to start the construction of 10 more nuclear fuel plants within the next year. At the same time, Iranian military officials announced plans to build military planes, aerial drones and antiaircraft missiles.

This provoked an unusually harsh response from Russia which joined the U.S. in condemning Iran’s plans. A muted reaction from China, however, which also wields a Security Council veto, signalled the possibility of a tough road ahead for those who wish to impose sanctions.

Then, last Thursday, the IAEA announced for the first time that it had concluded that Iran was, indeed, trying to make a nuclear bomb and, further, that its relations with the Islamic Republic were “fraying.” U.S. officials said the report was in agreement with their own assessment of the situation. Iran is now refusing to let inspectors have access to its heavy-water production plant near Arak, according to the UN, where plutonium from the spent fuel can be used to make atomic bombs.

Meanwhile, Iran’s arch enemy, Israel, has been creating a little buzz of its own. Last month it started conducting the first air assaults on Gaza in more than a year, in response to some cross-border mortar attacks that had landed harmlessly in open fields.

In addition, Lebanese troops were reported to be firing at Israeli warplanes last week that allegedly flew into Labanese air space. The L.A. Times reported that the incident came ” amid heightened tensions following some of the sharpest exchanges in years between Israel and its Arab neighbors.”

Also, Israel’s secret service, the Mossad, is considered to be behind this month’s sloppily-executed assassination of a Hamas official in a hotel room in Dubai. The operation has caused an international flap between Israel and some European countries.

Undeterred, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced last week that he will press for “crippling sanctions” against Iran.

Two months ago, the Brookings Institution conducted a wargame involving the Iranian threat. “Wargames” are actually strategic planning tools that have proven useful in analyzing international conflict possibilities.

In this game, it was determined that sanctions against the Islamic Republic would not work and it was assumed (but not necessarily predicted) that Israel would attack Iran without consulting the U.S. The results revealed that a scenario such as that would be “disastrous” for the United States. Oil prices would soar, crippling the already weak U.S. economy and, militarily, the consequences could be dire for our Fifth Fleet bottled up in the Persian Gulf. The final outcome, according to the Brookings analysis, would be a serious deterioration in Israeli/U.S. relations and a stronger Iran, which would then successfully move on to join the nuclear club.

In Afghanistan, the Marja campaign is now expected to continue for about a month before the Taliban can be successfully routed and, as expected, American and coalition casualties are mounting. The L.A. Times reported today that elements of the Taliban have left Marja and are moving back into other cities that they had previously vacated.

Controversy over the war in Afghanistan brought down the Dutch government yesterday. As a result, new elections will be held, and all Dutch troops, numbering about 2,000, will be withdrawn from the war’s theater. Canada is also withdrawing its 2,800 troops by the end of next year. In addition, France, Germany and other European nations have recently refused to contribute additional combat troops to the Afghanistan campaign.

Last week, the Department of Defense released the obituaries of 13 military personnel killed in that country, ranging in age from 19 to 29. Nine of the fallen heroes were Marines. Total U.S. deaths in Afghanistan now amount to 999, according to the website icasualties.org.

In Iraq, the U.S. troop strength has now fallen below the 100,000 level for the first time since our 2003 invasion. Whether the fragmented nation can ever effectively function as a single entity again, is still in doubt, however. Because of what it calls “interference from Iran,” a leading Sunni party announced yesterday that it will boycott the March 7 elections.

Last week, the DOD released the obituary of one 43-year-old soldier killed in Iraq from what were classified as non-combat-related injuries. The above website reports that total U.S. deaths in that country now stand at 4,378.